Betting Lines
| Spread | GONZ -16.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 155.5 Over |
| Money | SF +1400 GONZ -2000 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GONZ +39 | 161 | Lost |
| Massey | GONZ -15.4 (-23.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 158.5 (+2.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 1% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 0% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GONZ -12.0 (-27.0) | 156.4 (+4.6) | 16% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GONZ -13.2 (-25.8) | 153.1 (+7.9) | 18% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GONZ -14.4 (-24.6) | 158.5 (+2.5) | 14% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | GONZ -11.5 (-27.5) | 155.2 (+5.8) | 14% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 19, 2026 | GONZ 80 – 59 SF |
| Jan 25, 2026 | GONZ 68 – 66 SF |
| Mar 11, 2025 | GONZ 85 – 76 SF |
| Mar 2, 2025 | GONZ 95 – 75 SF |
| Feb 14, 2025 | GONZ 88 – 77 SF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SF | GONZ |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-14 | 31-1 |
| Conference | 4-9 | 15-0 |
| Home | 3-5 | 12-0 |
| Away | 4-6 | 7-0 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 12-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.4 | 91.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.3 | 69.7 |
| Massey | 6.3 (#89) | 24.2 (#2) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.57 (#136) | 5.39 (#2) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.71 (#134) | 7.17 (#2) |
| RPI | 0.529 (#120) | 0.666 (#1) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SF | GONZ |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.4% | 54.8% |
| 3PT% | 36.0% | 34.9% |
| REB / G | 34.8 | 38.8 |
| OREB / G | 9.2 | 10.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.01 | 1.61 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.3% | 60.5% |
| TOV% | 17.7% | 15.9% |
| ORB% | 25.4% | 31.5% |
| FT Rate | 15.5% | 26.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.3% | 47.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.9% | 20.3% |
| DRB% | 75.7% | 76.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 30.6% | 19.6% |
Game Analysis
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