Betting Lines
| Spread | MIZ -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 151.5 Over |
| Money | MIZ -138 ARK +150 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MIZ win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ARK +5 | 167 | Lost |
| Massey | ARK -0.7 (-4.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 153.0 (+14.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 75% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 73% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MIZ -1.6 (-6.6) | 151.5 (+15.5) | 58% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ARK -0.5 (-4.5) | 151.7 (+15.3) | 51% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MIZ -0.9 (-5.9) | 156.6 (+10.4) | 58% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | MIZ -1.7 (-6.7) | 153.3 (+13.7) | 54% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 7, 2026 | ARK 88 – 84 MIZ |
| Feb 21, 2026 | ARK 94 – 86 MIZ |
| Feb 23, 2025 | ARK 92 – 85 MIZ |
| Jan 18, 2025 | MIZ 83 – 65 ARK |
| Feb 24, 2024 | ARK 88 – 73 MIZ |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MIZ | ARK |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-10 | 25-7 |
| Conference | 8-8 | 13-4 |
| Home | 8-4 | 16-1 |
| Away | 6-4 | 5-4 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 4-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.4 | 81.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.9 | 70.8 |
| Massey | 11.5 (#39) | 14.8 (#16) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.82 (#13) | 2.19 (#39) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.24 (#23) | 2.72 (#38) |
| RPI | 0.642 (#4) | 0.588 (#39) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MIZ | ARK |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.5% | 45.0% |
| 3PT% | 30.7% | 33.9% |
| REB / G | 36.6 | 40.9 |
| OREB / G | 9.9 | 12.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.97 | 1.15 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.1% | 51.1% |
| TOV% | 18.9% | 16.9% |
| ORB% | 28.9% | 33.1% |
| FT Rate | 27.7% | 22.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.1% | 47.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.8% | 20.6% |
| DRB% | 70.7% | 74.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.4% | 21.7% |
Game Analysis
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