Betting Lines
| Spread | TOL -7.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 155.5 Over |
| Money | TOL -333 BGSU +320 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TOL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BGSU +7 | 169 | Lost |
| Massey | TOL -9.9 (-16.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 159.6 (+9.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 91% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 95% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TOL -11.3 (-18.3) | 158.4 (+10.6) | 86% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TOL -9.3 (-16.3) | 158.4 (+10.6) | 80% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TOL -12.0 (-19.0) | 160.0 (+9.0) | 83% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | TOL -11.2 (-18.2) | 159.8 (+9.2) | 84% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 12, 2026 | TOL 77 – 76 BGSU |
| Feb 14, 2026 | BGSU 80 – 70 TOL |
| Jan 24, 2026 | TOL 73 – 72 BGSU |
| Feb 21, 2025 | BGSU 69 – 68 TOL |
| Jan 24, 2025 | TOL 84 – 71 BGSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TOL | BGSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-9 | 14-12 |
| Conference | 15-4 | 10-8 |
| Home | 12-1 | 4-7 |
| Away | 7-5 | 10-3 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L2 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 81.1 | 77.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.6 | 74.9 |
| Massey | 9.1 (#62) | 1.7 (#135) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.61 (#64) | -0.23 (#188) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.14 (#63) | -0.27 (#190) |
| RPI | 0.583 (#45) | 0.490 (#185) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TOL | BGSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.2% | 41.9% |
| 3PT% | 38.2% | 32.2% |
| REB / G | 37.9 | 37.6 |
| OREB / G | 11.3 | 11.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.45 | 1.24 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.8% | 48.0% |
| TOV% | 16.0% | 14.1% |
| ORB% | 31.2% | 29.3% |
| FT Rate | 22.0% | 22.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.6% | 52.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.8% | 19.1% |
| DRB% | 69.4% | 70.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.8% | 21.1% |
Game Analysis
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