Betting Lines
| Spread | XAV -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 135.5 Over |
| Money | XAV -175 CONN +180 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | XAV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CONN +8 | 152 | Lost |
| Massey | XAV -4.5 (-12.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.0 (+14.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 84% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 83% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | XAV -5.4 (-13.4) | 136.5 (+15.5) | 72% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | XAV -3.1 (-11.1) | 134.3 (+17.7) | 63% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | XAV -4.1 (-12.1) | 138.3 (+13.7) | 63% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | XAV -5.0 (-13.0) | 137.5 (+14.5) | 61% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 12, 2026 | CONN 93 – 68 XAV |
| Feb 4, 2026 | CONN 92 – 60 XAV |
| Dec 31, 2025 | CONN 90 – 67 XAV |
| Jan 26, 2025 | XAV 76 – 72 CONN |
| Dec 19, 2024 | CONN 94 – 89 XAV |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | XAV | CONN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-8 | 15-8 |
| Conference | 6-7 | 11-6 |
| Home | 11-2 | 7-3 |
| Away | 2-5 | 6-3 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L3 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.8 | 71.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.2 | 64.6 |
| Massey | 11.8 (#36) | 9.9 (#55) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.73 (#15) | 1.51 (#68) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.23 (#24) | 2.14 (#62) |
| RPI | 0.609 (#21) | 0.548 (#84) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | XAV | CONN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.8% | 43.0% |
| 3PT% | 36.4% | 34.5% |
| REB / G | 38.9 | 36.8 |
| OREB / G | 9.5 | 13.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.52 | 1.01 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.6% | 48.9% |
| TOV% | 17.1% | 18.6% |
| ORB% | 27.4% | 36.9% |
| FT Rate | 19.0% | 22.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.3% | 47.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.6% | 20.6% |
| DRB% | 72.8% | 70.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 15.9% | 27.3% |
Game Analysis
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