Betting Lines
| Spread | ALCN -13.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Under |
| Money | MVSU +900 ALCN -1200 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MVSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ALCN +14 | 126 | Lost |
| Massey | ALCN -16.1 (+2.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 153.6 (-27.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 32% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 16% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ALCN -13.2 (-0.8) | 145.8 (-19.8) | 16% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ALCN -12.4 (-1.6) | 137.3 (-11.3) | 13% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ALCN -13.3 (-0.7) | 145.5 (-19.5) | 12% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ALCN -12.5 (-1.5) | 140.5 (-14.5) | 12% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 4, 2026 | ALCN 67 – 64 MVSU |
| Feb 10, 2026 | ALCN 74 – 66 MVSU |
| Mar 7, 2025 | ALCN 72 – 64 MVSU |
| Feb 11, 2025 | ALCN 86 – 39 MVSU |
| Mar 8, 2024 | ALCN 74 – 67 MVSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MVSU | ALCN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 2-22 | 6-13 |
| Conference | 2-13 | 6-7 |
| Home | 1-5 | 4-3 |
| Away | 1-16 | 2-9 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 56.8 | 66.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 87.4 | 75.6 |
| Massey | -35.2 (#349) | -16.5 (#342) |
| Bradley-Terry | -3.65 (#342) | -2.46 (#329) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -5.89 (#347) | -3.76 (#334) |
| RPI | 0.385 (#333) | 0.422 (#289) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MVSU | ALCN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 34.8% | 38.9% |
| 3PT% | 31.6% | 28.9% |
| REB / G | 28.4 | 31.6 |
| OREB / G | 6.6 | 11.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.61 | 0.51 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 42.8% | 43.8% |
| TOV% | 23.2% | 21.2% |
| ORB% | 16.9% | 31.5% |
| FT Rate | 13.0% | 25.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 57.7% | 56.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.4% | 21.6% |
| DRB% | 60.7% | 65.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.8% | 35.5% |
Game Analysis
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