Betting Lines
| Spread | TROY -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Under |
| Money | TROY +100 USA +100 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TROY win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USA +7 | 109 | Lost |
| Massey | USA -2.3 (-4.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 137.3 (-28.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 51% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 53% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USA -1.1 (-5.9) | 134.2 (-25.2) | 42% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USA -1.6 (-5.4) | 134.1 (-25.1) | 40% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USA -1.2 (-5.8) | 134.6 (-25.6) | 43% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | USA -0.9 (-6.1) | 134.8 (-25.8) | 47% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | USA 65 – 54 TROY |
| Jan 3, 2026 | TROY 59 – 49 USA |
| Jan 25, 2025 | TROY 65 – 55 USA |
| Jan 18, 2025 | USA 64 – 63 TROY |
| Jan 27, 2024 | TROY 83 – 79 USA |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.