Betting Lines
| Spread | IOWA -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 152.5 Under |
| Money | MSU +188 IOWA -163 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | IOWA +30 | 146 | Lost |
| Massey | IOWA -9.4 (-20.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 158.1 (-12.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 35% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 30% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | IOWA -4.3 (-25.7) | 153.1 (-7.1) | 33% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | IOWA -7.5 (-22.5) | 152.0 (-6.0) | 33% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | IOWA -6.5 (-23.5) | 152.2 (-6.2) | 28% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | IOWA -5.1 (-24.9) | 152.5 (-6.5) | 29% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 3, 2025 | MSU 71 – 52 IOWA |
| Mar 7, 2025 | MSU 91 – 84 IOWA |
| Feb 21, 2024 | IOWA 78 – 71 MSU |
| Feb 25, 2023 | IOWA 112 – 106 MSU |
| Jan 27, 2023 | MSU 63 – 61 IOWA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MSU | IOWA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-13 | 22-9 |
| Conference | 9-11 | 14-6 |
| Home | 12-3 | 14-2 |
| Away | 3-8 | 6-4 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.4 | 83.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.1 | 72.7 |
| Massey | 6.7 (#87) | 18.6 (#5) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.58 (#66) | 2.65 (#16) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.51 (#51) | 3.88 (#9) |
| RPI | 0.524 (#129) | 0.568 (#63) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MSU | IOWA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.5% | 47.5% |
| 3PT% | 32.7% | 38.9% |
| REB / G | 38.7 | 40.6 |
| OREB / G | 11.3 | 12.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.25 | 2.04 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.5% | 55.2% |
| TOV% | 19.6% | 13.3% |
| ORB% | 31.2% | 33.4% |
| FT Rate | 22.1% | 25.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.2% | 49.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.1% | 17.0% |
| DRB% | 74.1% | 68.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.3% | 16.1% |
Game Analysis
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