Betting Lines
| Spread | VILL -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Over |
| Money | CREI +120 VILL -110 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CREI win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CREI +16 | 156 | Won |
| Massey | CREI -0.4 (+15.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 150.6 (+5.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 40% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 44% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CREI -1.4 (+14.6) | 148.2 (+7.8) | 57% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CREI -0.9 (+15.1) | 143.0 (+13.0) | 57% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CREI -0.9 (+15.1) | 147.4 (+8.6) | 56% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CREI -1.7 (+14.3) | 148.3 (+7.7) | 64% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 14, 2026 | VILL 80 – 69 CREI |
| Jan 8, 2026 | CREI 76 – 72 VILL |
| Feb 1, 2025 | CREI 62 – 60 VILL |
| Dec 21, 2024 | CREI 86 – 79 VILL |
| Mar 9, 2024 | CREI 69 – 67 VILL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CREI | VILL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-9 | 18-7 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 11-4 |
| Home | 11-3 | 9-0 |
| Away | 7-4 | 4-4 |
| Neutral | 4-2 | 5-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.0 | 74.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.2 | 66.5 |
| Massey | 13.6 (#22) | 15.8 (#13) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.29 (#32) | 3.13 (#6) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.01 (#31) | 3.75 (#11) |
| RPI | 0.550 (#80) | 0.610 (#20) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CREI | VILL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.2% | 46.7% |
| 3PT% | 36.3% | 38.7% |
| REB / G | 36.0 | 33.7 |
| OREB / G | 8.2 | 9.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.39 | 1.77 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.2% | 55.4% |
| TOV% | 16.1% | 13.8% |
| ORB% | 24.3% | 28.9% |
| FT Rate | 18.7% | 23.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.5% | 52.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.7% | 20.0% |
| DRB% | 70.6% | 74.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.0% | 16.7% |
Game Analysis
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