Betting Lines
| Spread | ALA -13.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 158.5 Over |
| Money | ALA -1000 UGA +850 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ALA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ALA +33 | 197 | Won |
| Massey | ALA -14.2 (+18.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 159.9 (+37.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 88% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ALA -12.2 (+20.8) | 158.3 (+38.7) | 87% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ALA -11.5 (+21.5) | 157.2 (+39.8) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ALA -12.5 (+20.5) | 156.5 (+40.5) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ALA -12.3 (+20.7) | 157.3 (+39.7) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 3, 2026 | UGA 98 – 88 ALA |
| Feb 1, 2025 | ALA 90 – 69 UGA |
| Jan 31, 2024 | ALA 85 – 76 UGA |
| Feb 18, 2023 | ALA 108 – 59 UGA |
| Jan 25, 2022 | UGA 82 – 76 ALA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ALA | UGA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 26-7 | 14-12 |
| Conference | 16-2 | 7-11 |
| Home | 12-1 | 12-5 |
| Away | 7-3 | 2-6 |
| Neutral | 7-3 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.7 | 77.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.1 | 78.6 |
| Massey | 17.2 (#7) | 5.5 (#94) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.75 (#14) | 1.24 (#78) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.60 (#13) | 1.48 (#85) |
| RPI | 0.639 (#5) | 0.525 (#126) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ALA | UGA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.9% | 46.4% |
| 3PT% | 35.5% | 32.5% |
| REB / G | 40.6 | 37.4 |
| OREB / G | 12.1 | 12.9 |
| AST / TO | 0.99 | 0.90 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.2% | 51.6% |
| TOV% | 19.0% | 22.5% |
| ORB% | 30.7% | 35.6% |
| FT Rate | 21.7% | 22.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.2% | 51.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.0% | 22.2% |
| DRB% | 70.8% | 66.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.9% | 20.8% |
Game Analysis
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