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Efficiency Plus — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
29–17 on winners
spread MAE 7.8
46 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Wagner
@
Fairleigh Dickinson
|
+0.2 | 144.9 | 45% | 95–86 | ✗ |
Detroit Mercy
@
Cleveland State
|
+1.9 | 142.8 | 61% | 64–71 | ✓ |
Bellarmine
@
North Alabama
|
-4.2 | 134.4 | 29% | 87–63 | ✓ |
Pacific
@
Loyola Marymount
|
+2.5 | 133.4 | 65% | 76–80 | ✓ |
UC San Diego
@
Cal State Bakersfield
|
+9.4 | 138.0 | 84% | 50–65 | ✓ |
UCLA
@
Washington
|
-9.2 | 140.6 | 20% | 64–61 | ✓ |
USC
@
Washington State
|
-6.5 | 135.0 | 28% | 76–65 | ✓ |
Providence
@
DePaul
|
-1.4 | 136.9 | 46% | 57–47 | ✓ |
Valparaiso
@
Northern Iowa
|
+3.2 | 136.7 | 65% | 70–57 | ✗ |
Nicholls
@
SE Louisiana
|
-4.4 | 146.7 | 33% | 86–84 | ✓ |
Denver
@
Western Illinois
|
+6.6 | 150.1 | 78% | 75–82 | ✓ |
Omaha
@
Kansas City
|
+8.4 | 123.4 | 77% | 47–55 | ✓ |
Utah Tech
@
Utah Valley
|
+10.5 | 151.4 | 85% | 93–89 | ✗ |
Saint Mary's
@
Pepperdine
|
-0.4 | 136.4 | 51% | 58–60 | ✗ |
UT Martin
@
Murray State
|
+13.8 | 135.3 | 88% | 55–84 | ✓ |
Florida International
@
UTEP
|
+9.1 | 142.9 | 86% | 68–77 | ✓ |
Utah
@
Stanford
|
+2.6 | 135.5 | 62% | 66–73 | ✓ |
Colorado
@
California
|
-10.4 | 132.1 | 19% | 62–71 | ✗ |
UNLV
@
Boise State
|
+11.0 | 137.4 | 87% | 59–61 | ✓ |
New Mexico State
@
Seattle U
|
+1.2 | 140.7 | 50% | 65–58 | ✗ |
UC Santa Barbara
@
Hawai'i
|
-3.9 | 134.5 | 28% | 81–74 | ✓ |
UC Irvine
@
UC Riverside
|
+3.9 | 130.1 | 56% | 73–67 | ✗ |
Stony Brook
@
Vermont
|
+11.0 | 134.3 | 84% | 57–61 | ✓ |
Michigan
@
Wisconsin
|
+0.3 | 132.5 | 51% | 67–59 | ✗ |
UCF
@
Cincinnati
|
+2.0 | 134.4 | 66% | 68–69 | ✓ |
Elon
@
Charleston
|
+6.9 | 131.5 | 72% | 66–55 | ✗ |
Northeastern
@
Towson
|
-3.9 | 137.1 | 35% | 57–68 | ✗ |
NJIT
@
Hartford
|
+1.9 | 131.6 | 58% | 61–75 | ✓ |
Norfolk State
@
Morgan State
|
+5.1 | 148.5 | 66% | 68–65 | ✗ |
Tulane
@
South Florida
|
+3.7 | 129.3 | 60% | 62–59 | ✗ |
Hofstra
@
James Madison
|
+3.0 | 147.3 | 68% | 70–74 | ✓ |
Loyola Chicago
@
Drake
|
-0.9 | 127.0 | 51% | 50–51 | ✗ |
Sacramento State
@
California Baptist
|
+2.9 | 148.6 | 53% | 70–69 | ✗ |
Marquette
@
Seton Hall
|
+6.1 | 137.8 | 77% | 51–57 | ✓ |
Nebraska
@
Penn State
|
+9.7 | 143.4 | 84% | 62–61 | ✗ |
South Dakota
@
North Dakota
|
-5.8 | 146.4 | 36% | 81–85 | ✗ |
Pittsburgh
@
Georgia Tech
|
+2.2 | 143.1 | 62% | 65–71 | ✓ |
Indiana State
@
Evansville
|
-2.6 | 126.5 | 32% | 76–70 | ✓ |
Bradley
@
Missouri State
|
+4.2 | 134.1 | 75% | 57–72 | ✓ |
Illinois State
@
Southern Illinois
|
+1.1 | 136.8 | 61% | 49–59 | ✓ |
Lafayette
@
Loyola Maryland
|
+2.0 | 149.1 | 54% | 69–88 | ✓ |
Holy Cross
@
Boston University
|
+2.0 | 144.3 | 62% | 68–86 | ✓ |
Fairfield
@
Saint Peter's
|
+8.5 | 125.7 | 78% | 49–66 | ✓ |
South Dakota State
@
Oral Roberts
|
+0.9 | 156.7 | 48% | 95–80 | ✗ |
Colgate
@
Army
|
-5.4 | 147.9 | 32% | 92–83 | ✓ |
Miami
@
Notre Dame
|
+7.8 | 140.6 | 82% | 61–71 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.