Betting Lines
| Spread | PROV -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Under |
| Money | DEP +140 PROV -138 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DEP win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PROV +10 | 104 | Lost |
| Massey | PROV -3.7 (-6.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.6 (-36.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 21% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 19% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PROV -3.1 (-6.9) | 138.3 (-34.3) | 37% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PROV -1.4 (-8.6) | 136.9 (-32.9) | 46% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PROV -3.1 (-6.9) | 138.6 (-34.6) | 41% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PROV -3.2 (-6.8) | 136.4 (-32.4) | 38% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 22, 2026 | PROV 71 – 68 DEP |
| Feb 7, 2026 | PROV 90 – 72 DEP |
| Mar 5, 2025 | DEP 80 – 77 PROV |
| Dec 11, 2024 | PROV 70 – 63 DEP |
| Feb 18, 2024 | PROV 81 – 70 DEP |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DEP | PROV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 5-14 | 13-13 |
| Conference | 2-13 | 9-10 |
| Home | 2-8 | 8-3 |
| Away | 2-5 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.8 | 69.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.9 | 69.7 |
| Massey | 0.9 (#151) | 7.2 (#80) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.37 (#196) | 1.40 (#70) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.11 (#173) | 1.86 (#71) |
| RPI | 0.428 (#286) | 0.538 (#101) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DEP | PROV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.3% | 43.7% |
| 3PT% | 31.6% | 32.6% |
| REB / G | 37.6 | 35.7 |
| OREB / G | 12.5 | 10.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.82 | 1.23 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.2% | 49.1% |
| TOV% | 21.8% | 16.8% |
| ORB% | 32.7% | 30.3% |
| FT Rate | 16.4% | 23.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.6% | 49.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.5% | 16.9% |
| DRB% | 70.5% | 70.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.5% | 20.8% |
Game Analysis
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