Betting Lines
| Spread | SIU -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Under |
| Money | SIU -163 ILST +180 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SIU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SIU +10 | 108 | Won |
| Massey | SIU -2.2 (+7.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.8 (-33.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 76% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 63% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SIU -2.2 (+7.8) | 140.5 (-32.5) | 62% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SIU -1.1 (+8.9) | 136.8 (-28.8) | 61% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SIU -2.4 (+7.6) | 140.3 (-32.3) | 61% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SIU -2.5 (+7.5) | 140.5 (-32.5) | 60% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 4, 2026 | SIU 54 – 50 ILST |
| Dec 19, 2025 | ILST 75 – 68 SIU |
| Feb 26, 2025 | SIU 88 – 79 ILST |
| Jan 5, 2025 | ILST 85 – 54 SIU |
| Feb 11, 2024 | SIU 69 – 66 ILST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SIU | ILST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-14 | 7-18 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 4-14 |
| Home | 8-5 | 3-8 |
| Away | 3-8 | 3-9 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 64.1 | 67.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.4 | 73.4 |
| Massey | -4.1 (#234) | -3.7 (#228) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.42 (#202) | -1.14 (#262) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.16 (#248) | -1.21 (#252) |
| RPI | 0.468 (#222) | 0.442 (#263) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SIU | ILST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.3% | 43.2% |
| 3PT% | 37.3% | 36.6% |
| REB / G | 29.6 | 34.5 |
| OREB / G | 5.7 | 8.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.08 | 0.91 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.0% | 50.2% |
| TOV% | 18.4% | 18.7% |
| ORB% | 17.7% | 24.3% |
| FT Rate | 22.2% | 14.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.3% | 51.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.4% | 16.3% |
| DRB% | 74.5% | 73.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.2% | 18.9% |
Game Analysis
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