Betting Lines
| Spread | INST -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 123.5 Over |
| Money | EVAN +140 INST -138 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | EVAN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | INST +6 | 146 | Lost |
| Massey | INST -3.9 (-2.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 127.3 (+18.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 29% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 24% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | INST -3.0 (-3.0) | 130.1 (+15.9) | 37% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | INST -2.6 (-3.4) | 126.5 (+19.5) | 32% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | INST -3.5 (-2.5) | 129.3 (+16.7) | 31% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | INST -2.9 (-3.1) | 131.2 (+14.8) | 39% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 4, 2026 | INST 84 – 63 EVAN |
| Jan 10, 2026 | EVAN 72 – 69 INST |
| Feb 20, 2025 | EVAN 79 – 74 INST |
| Jan 4, 2025 | INST 66 – 62 EVAN |
| Feb 29, 2024 | INST 85 – 67 EVAN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | EVAN | INST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9-16 | 15-10 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 11-7 |
| Home | 8-4 | 9-3 |
| Away | 1-10 | 5-6 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 64.8 | 65.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.6 | 65.8 |
| Massey | -3.9 (#230) | 2.5 (#125) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.66 (#224) | 0.67 (#118) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.96 (#231) | 0.69 (#132) |
| RPI | 0.464 (#228) | 0.536 (#106) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | EVAN | INST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.4% | 42.4% |
| 3PT% | 37.3% | 34.6% |
| REB / G | 28.2 | 32.2 |
| OREB / G | 6.2 | 8.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.06 | 0.82 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.0% | 48.4% |
| TOV% | 18.1% | 19.5% |
| ORB% | 19.2% | 26.2% |
| FT Rate | 18.5% | 28.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.0% | 51.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.8% | 22.1% |
| DRB% | 76.4% | 70.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.9% | 20.4% |
Game Analysis
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