Betting Lines
| Spread | SPU -9.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 123.5 Under |
| Money | SPU -500 FAIR +450 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SPU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SPU +17 | 115 | Won |
| Massey | SPU -12.7 (+4.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 121.8 (-6.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 92% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SPU -9.4 (+7.6) | 127.8 (-12.8) | 84% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SPU -8.5 (+8.5) | 125.7 (-10.7) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SPU -9.0 (+8.0) | 128.7 (-13.7) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SPU -9.8 (+7.2) | 127.1 (-12.1) | 82% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 7, 2026 | FAIR 74 – 55 SPU |
| Feb 15, 2026 | SPU 83 – 74 FAIR |
| Dec 30, 2025 | SPU 70 – 66 FAIR |
| Feb 15, 2025 | SPU 65 – 52 FAIR |
| Mar 16, 2024 | SPU 68 – 63 FAIR |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SPU | FAIR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-11 | 10-17 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 7-11 |
| Home | 8-3 | 4-8 |
| Away | 4-7 | 3-8 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 63.2 | 61.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 61.5 | 66.7 |
| Massey | -0.0 (#163) | -10.2 (#314) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.55 (#129) | -1.40 (#278) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.68 (#134) | -1.69 (#274) |
| RPI | 0.535 (#107) | 0.420 (#295) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SPU | FAIR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.4% | 39.8% |
| 3PT% | 34.2% | 30.1% |
| REB / G | 37.8 | 34.9 |
| OREB / G | 10.8 | 9.9 |
| AST / TO | 0.82 | 0.81 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.2% | 45.3% |
| TOV% | 21.7% | 19.9% |
| ORB% | 29.2% | 28.2% |
| FT Rate | 20.6% | 20.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.6% | 51.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.1% | 16.4% |
| DRB% | 70.2% | 74.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.8% | 20.7% |
Game Analysis
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