Betting Lines
| Spread | COLO -9.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 134.5 Under |
| Money | CAL +350 COLO -400 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CAL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CAL +9 | 133 | Won |
| Massey | COLO -13.5 (+22.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 134.8 (-1.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 12% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 7% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | COLO -11.0 (+20.0) | 135.5 (-2.5) | 16% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | COLO -10.4 (+19.4) | 132.1 (+0.9) | 19% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | COLO -11.0 (+20.0) | 134.6 (-1.6) | 16% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | COLO -11.6 (+20.6) | 135.6 (-2.6) | 17% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 29, 2024 | COLO 88 – 78 CAL |
| Jan 11, 2024 | CAL 82 – 78 COLO |
| Feb 3, 2023 | COLO 59 – 46 CAL |
| Dec 31, 2022 | CAL 80 – 76 COLO |
| Feb 18, 2022 | COLO 70 – 62 CAL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CAL | COLO |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9-20 | 23-9 |
| Conference | 3-17 | 14-6 |
| Home | 6-8 | 11-1 |
| Away | 1-11 | 6-6 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 6-2 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 64.7 | 73.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.5 | 63.8 |
| Massey | 0.2 (#159) | 16.3 (#12) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.25 (#190) | 2.23 (#38) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.08 (#170) | 3.07 (#29) |
| RPI | 0.466 (#225) | 0.607 (#21) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CAL | COLO |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.6% | 46.5% |
| 3PT% | 33.8% | 38.1% |
| REB / G | 30.5 | 34.7 |
| OREB / G | 7.6 | 9.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.92 | 1.33 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.7% | 53.4% |
| TOV% | 19.8% | 16.3% |
| ORB% | 23.5% | 29.6% |
| FT Rate | 23.0% | 24.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.0% | 47.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.2% | 20.6% |
| DRB% | 74.7% | 74.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.5% | 19.3% |
Game Analysis
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