Betting Lines
| Spread | LMU -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 128.5 Over |
| Money | LMU -120 PAC +125 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LMU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LMU +4 | 156 | Won |
| Massey | LMU -3.7 (+0.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 130.6 (+25.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 54% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 55% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LMU -2.8 (+1.2) | 134.4 (+21.6) | 66% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LMU -2.5 (+1.5) | 133.4 (+22.6) | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LMU -2.5 (+1.5) | 138.4 (+17.6) | 62% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | LMU -2.5 (+1.5) | 135.4 (+20.6) | 71% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 12, 2026 | PAC 65 – 59 LMU |
| Dec 31, 2025 | LMU 80 – 71 PAC |
| Feb 14, 2025 | PAC 83 – 58 LMU |
| Jan 24, 2025 | LMU 73 – 68 PAC |
| Feb 25, 2024 | LMU 86 – 63 PAC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LMU | PAC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-9 | 9-9 |
| Conference | 7-5 | 6-7 |
| Home | 8-3 | 6-2 |
| Away | 4-5 | 3-6 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.5 | 68.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.0 | 71.1 |
| Massey | 3.2 (#117) | 2.1 (#134) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.85 (#108) | 1.12 (#84) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.85 (#120) | 1.14 (#102) |
| RPI | 0.510 (#149) | 0.550 (#84) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LMU | PAC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.9% | 41.1% |
| 3PT% | 31.8% | 30.3% |
| REB / G | 37.3 | 34.7 |
| OREB / G | 10.7 | 10.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.78 | 0.92 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.7% | 45.4% |
| TOV% | 23.8% | 16.8% |
| ORB% | 32.8% | 28.7% |
| FT Rate | 27.9% | 18.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.9% | 51.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.6% | 19.8% |
| DRB% | 79.7% | 75.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.5% | 25.3% |
Game Analysis
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