Betting Lines
| Spread | PEPP -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 134.5 Under |
| Money | PEPP -125 SMC +105 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PEPP win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PEPP +2 | 118 | Won |
| Massey | SMC -1.3 (+3.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 135.3 (-17.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 41% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 39% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PEPP -0.6 (+1.4) | 137.5 (-19.5) | 52% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SMC -0.4 (+2.4) | 136.4 (-18.4) | 51% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PEPP -0.3 (+1.7) | 139.5 (-21.5) | 57% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PEPP -0.7 (+1.3) | 134.7 (-16.7) | 60% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 12, 2026 | SMC 88 – 60 PEPP |
| Dec 31, 2025 | SMC 72 – 45 PEPP |
| Mar 11, 2025 | SMC 74 – 59 PEPP |
| Jan 19, 2025 | SMC 74 – 50 PEPP |
| Jan 3, 2025 | SMC 71 – 41 PEPP |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PEPP | SMC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-12 | 14-10 |
| Conference | 7-6 | 4-6 |
| Home | 7-5 | 9-3 |
| Away | 3-5 | 2-3 |
| Neutral | 5-2 | 3-4 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | W3 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.6 | 64.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.0 | 62.6 |
| Massey | 3.0 (#121) | 6.8 (#83) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.80 (#112) | 1.62 (#62) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.90 (#116) | 1.84 (#75) |
| RPI | 0.535 (#108) | 0.579 (#52) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PEPP | SMC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.9% | 43.6% |
| 3PT% | 32.1% | 32.7% |
| REB / G | 34.9 | 35.2 |
| OREB / G | 8.3 | 8.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.25 | 1.03 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.8% | 49.8% |
| TOV% | 17.4% | 16.8% |
| ORB% | 23.0% | 27.5% |
| FT Rate | 23.2% | 20.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.8% | 47.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.1% | 17.9% |
| DRB% | 73.2% | 79.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.9% | 20.5% |
Game Analysis
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