Betting Lines
| Spread | CIN -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 134.5 Over |
| Money | CIN -225 UCF +250 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CIN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CIN +1 | 137 | Won |
| Massey | CIN -2.6 (-1.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 136.0 (+1.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 57% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 53% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CIN -2.2 (-1.2) | 135.9 (+1.1) | 64% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CIN -2.0 (-1.0) | 134.4 (+2.6) | 66% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CIN -2.9 (-1.9) | 135.7 (+1.3) | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CIN -2.4 (-1.4) | 135.4 (+1.6) | 65% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 11, 2026 | UCF 66 – 65 CIN |
| Feb 8, 2026 | CIN 92 – 72 UCF |
| Jan 11, 2026 | UCF 73 – 72 CIN |
| Apr 3, 2025 | UCF 88 – 80 CIN |
| Feb 6, 2025 | CIN 93 – 83 UCF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CIN | UCF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-11 | 11-12 |
| Conference | 8-6 | 8-10 |
| Home | 5-5 | 6-3 |
| Away | 5-5 | 4-8 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.9 | 67.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.1 | 69.4 |
| Massey | 3.4 (#114) | 3.4 (#115) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.97 (#97) | 1.12 (#85) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.24 (#98) | 1.62 (#83) |
| RPI | 0.537 (#105) | 0.535 (#109) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CIN | UCF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.6% | 41.9% |
| 3PT% | 28.7% | 35.0% |
| REB / G | 36.3 | 33.5 |
| OREB / G | 10.7 | 10.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.01 | 0.71 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.9% | 48.6% |
| TOV% | 20.8% | 22.8% |
| ORB% | 29.0% | 29.8% |
| FT Rate | 21.2% | 21.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.7% | 50.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.5% | 20.4% |
| DRB% | 76.9% | 67.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 30.2% | 23.0% |
Game Analysis
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