Betting Lines
| Spread | USF -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 128.5 Under |
| Money | USF -188 TULN +200 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TULN +3 | 121 | Lost |
| Massey | USF -4.2 (-7.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 126.2 (-5.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 74% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 69% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USF -4.2 (-7.2) | 129.1 (-8.1) | 67% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USF -3.7 (-6.7) | 129.3 (-8.3) | 60% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USF -4.1 (-7.1) | 129.5 (-8.5) | 65% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | USF -4.0 (-7.0) | 129.0 (-8.0) | 65% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 1, 2026 | USF 90 – 62 TULN |
| Jan 29, 2026 | USF 97 – 83 TULN |
| Jan 11, 2025 | TULN 73 – 70 USF |
| Mar 6, 2024 | USF 85 – 72 TULN |
| Feb 19, 2023 | TULN 84 – 66 USF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USF | TULN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9-13 | 10-13 |
| Conference | 4-10 | 4-12 |
| Home | 4-6 | 6-6 |
| Away | 3-4 | 3-6 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 64.5 | 63.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.8 | 66.5 |
| Massey | 2.1 (#135) | 0.4 (#157) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.99 (#96) | 0.41 (#145) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.14 (#101) | 0.82 (#123) |
| RPI | 0.530 (#117) | 0.468 (#224) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USF | TULN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.7% | 37.2% |
| 3PT% | 34.3% | 28.9% |
| REB / G | 38.3 | 34.4 |
| OREB / G | 12.8 | 9.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.75 | 1.03 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.9% | 43.1% |
| TOV% | 21.9% | 17.0% |
| ORB% | 34.8% | 25.3% |
| FT Rate | 21.5% | 26.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.3% | 47.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.0% | 22.5% |
| DRB% | 74.3% | 71.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.3% | 20.0% |
Game Analysis
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