Betting Lines
| Spread | ND -7.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Under |
| Money | ND -300 MIA +300 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ND win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ND +10 | 132 | Won |
| Massey | ND -9.9 (+0.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.8 (-9.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 80% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ND -10.2 (-0.2) | 143.6 (-11.6) | 84% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ND -7.8 (+2.2) | 140.6 (-8.6) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ND -10.4 (-0.4) | 142.7 (-10.7) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ND -10.7 (-0.7) | 143.0 (-11.0) | 84% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 14, 2026 | MIA 81 – 69 ND |
| Feb 2, 2025 | MIA 63 – 57 ND |
| Jan 25, 2024 | MIA 73 – 61 ND |
| Dec 2, 2023 | MIA 62 – 49 ND |
| Dec 30, 2022 | MIA 76 – 65 ND |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ND | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-15 | 10-17 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 4-15 |
| Home | 6-5 | 7-8 |
| Away | 4-8 | 1-8 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.7 | 66.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.3 | 71.0 |
| Massey | 8.7 (#65) | 1.4 (#144) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.14 (#83) | 0.21 (#158) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.86 (#72) | 0.35 (#151) |
| RPI | 0.526 (#123) | 0.473 (#212) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ND | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.1% | 43.1% |
| 3PT% | 39.0% | 29.4% |
| REB / G | 32.6 | 35.8 |
| OREB / G | 6.3 | 9.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.47 | 0.86 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.4% | 48.1% |
| TOV% | 15.5% | 19.6% |
| ORB% | 20.1% | 27.2% |
| FT Rate | 21.7% | 22.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.9% | 51.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 12.9% | 18.5% |
| DRB% | 72.0% | 73.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 12.3% | 15.2% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.