Betting Lines
| Spread | PSU -11.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Under |
| Money | PSU -700 NEB +600 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NEB +1 | 123 | Lost |
| Massey | PSU -12.0 (-13.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.3 (-24.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 96% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PSU -11.2 (-12.2) | 142.4 (-19.4) | 86% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PSU -9.7 (-10.7) | 143.4 (-20.4) | 84% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PSU -11.4 (-12.4) | 145.3 (-22.3) | 85% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | PSU -12.0 (-13.0) | 142.4 (-19.4) | 85% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | NEB 87 – 64 PSU |
| Feb 19, 2025 | PSU 89 – 72 NEB |
| Feb 17, 2024 | NEB 68 – 49 PSU |
| Feb 5, 2023 | NEB 72 – 63 PSU |
| Jan 21, 2023 | PSU 76 – 65 NEB |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PSU | NEB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-14 | 7-20 |
| Conference | 7-12 | 3-16 |
| Home | 7-5 | 6-9 |
| Away | 3-8 | 1-10 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.6 | 68.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.0 | 74.6 |
| Massey | 11.8 (#33) | 2.3 (#131) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.94 (#51) | -0.71 (#229) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.06 (#30) | -0.37 (#195) |
| RPI | 0.565 (#70) | 0.463 (#231) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PSU | NEB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.7% | 39.4% |
| 3PT% | 34.2% | 30.6% |
| REB / G | 36.0 | 37.4 |
| OREB / G | 12.5 | 10.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.09 | 0.86 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.5% | 45.5% |
| TOV% | 16.7% | 19.0% |
| ORB% | 33.0% | 26.4% |
| FT Rate | 20.1% | 23.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.9% | 49.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.1% | 19.2% |
| DRB% | 72.0% | 70.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.4% | 22.2% |
Game Analysis
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