Betting Lines
| Spread | FDU -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Over |
| Money | FDU -125 WAG +138 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FDU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | WAG +9 | 181 | Lost |
| Massey | FDU -1.5 (-10.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.5 (+33.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 52% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 50% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FDU -1.2 (-10.2) | 148.0 (+33.0) | 60% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FDU -0.2 (-9.2) | 144.9 (+36.1) | 45% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FDU -0.6 (-9.6) | 150.5 (+30.5) | 51% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | FDU -2.2 (-11.2) | 149.5 (+31.5) | 55% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 31, 2026 | WAG 75 – 72 FDU |
| Jan 19, 2026 | FDU 68 – 61 WAG |
| Feb 8, 2025 | FDU 69 – 58 WAG |
| Jan 5, 2025 | FDU 71 – 59 WAG |
| Mar 2, 2024 | FDU 57 – 54 WAG |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FDU | WAG |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9-15 | 13-7 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 13-5 |
| Home | 4-6 | 7-3 |
| Away | 5-9 | 6-4 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.0 | 71.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 78.8 | 68.7 |
| Massey | -4.6 (#243) | -3.6 (#225) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.33 (#193) | 0.02 (#171) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.56 (#202) | -0.08 (#171) |
| RPI | 0.483 (#199) | 0.499 (#172) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FDU | WAG |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.2% | 43.2% |
| 3PT% | 36.9% | 32.0% |
| REB / G | 34.2 | 36.2 |
| OREB / G | 10.4 | 12.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.82 | 1.03 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.6% | 48.5% |
| TOV% | 20.3% | 18.9% |
| ORB% | 29.1% | 33.8% |
| FT Rate | 22.2% | 19.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.8% | 52.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.0% | 20.4% |
| DRB% | 66.9% | 72.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.9% | 36.8% |
Game Analysis
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