Betting Lines
| Spread | SDST -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 164.5 Over |
| Money | ORU +160 SDST -150 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ORU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SDST +15 | 175 | Lost |
| Massey | ORU -0.1 (-15.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 165.0 (+10.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 37% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 47% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ORU -0.6 (-15.6) | 157.9 (+17.1) | 53% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ORU -0.9 (-15.9) | 156.7 (+18.3) | 48% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ORU -0.7 (-15.7) | 158.7 (+16.3) | 50% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ORU -0.3 (-15.3) | 157.8 (+17.2) | 47% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 15, 2026 | SDST 87 – 69 ORU |
| Jan 31, 2026 | SDST 95 – 72 ORU |
| Feb 28, 2025 | SDST 77 – 69 ORU |
| Jan 18, 2025 | SDST 84 – 70 ORU |
| Mar 10, 2024 | SDST 79 – 63 ORU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ORU | SDST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-11 | 16-7 |
| Conference | 10-5 | 9-3 |
| Home | 8-3 | 8-1 |
| Away | 5-7 | 4-2 |
| Neutral | 5-1 | 4-4 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.9 | 79.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.2 | 74.5 |
| Massey | 0.1 (#161) | 2.5 (#126) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.74 (#233) | 0.23 (#156) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.67 (#212) | -0.05 (#166) |
| RPI | 0.525 (#124) | 0.534 (#111) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ORU | SDST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.0% | 47.3% |
| 3PT% | 38.7% | 40.5% |
| REB / G | 33.7 | 35.3 |
| OREB / G | 9.1 | 7.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.96 | 1.13 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.8% | 54.9% |
| TOV% | 16.4% | 16.2% |
| ORB% | 25.5% | 21.9% |
| FT Rate | 21.5% | 25.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.2% | 49.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.9% | 15.1% |
| DRB% | 67.8% | 77.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.0% | 21.8% |
Game Analysis
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