Betting Lines
| Spread | MOST -10.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 133.5 Under |
| Money | MOST -600 BRAD +500 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MOST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MOST +15 | 129 | Won |
| Massey | MOST -5.4 (+9.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 136.2 (-7.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 84% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MOST -6.4 (+8.6) | 135.4 (-6.4) | 75% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MOST -4.2 (+10.8) | 134.1 (-5.1) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MOST -6.6 (+8.4) | 135.8 (-6.8) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MOST -6.4 (+8.6) | 135.4 (-6.4) | 75% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 5, 2025 | BRAD 69 – 60 MOST |
| Feb 22, 2024 | BRAD 86 – 62 MOST |
| Jan 6, 2024 | BRAD 86 – 60 MOST |
| Feb 16, 2023 | BRAD 64 – 54 MOST |
| Dec 4, 2022 | BRAD 58 – 40 MOST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MOST | BRAD |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-7 | 12-16 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 6-12 |
| Home | 9-4 | 8-6 |
| Away | 7-2 | 2-9 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.5 | 67.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.3 | 68.1 |
| Massey | 5.4 (#96) | 2.5 (#127) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.96 (#99) | -0.22 (#189) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.00 (#111) | -0.33 (#193) |
| RPI | 0.529 (#119) | 0.501 (#168) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MOST | BRAD |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.5% | 44.2% |
| 3PT% | 33.7% | 31.5% |
| REB / G | 35.7 | 36.7 |
| OREB / G | 7.5 | 10.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.05 | 1.02 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.6% | 49.8% |
| TOV% | 18.5% | 19.6% |
| ORB% | 23.3% | 28.8% |
| FT Rate | 25.7% | 17.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.5% | 49.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.4% | 19.1% |
| DRB% | 76.4% | 73.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.3% | 20.1% |
Game Analysis
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