Betting Lines
| Spread | UCSB -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 133.5 Over |
| Money | HAW +230 UCSB -225 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | HAW win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UCSB +7 | 155 | Lost |
| Massey | UCSB -6.4 (-0.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 135.7 (+19.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 22% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 22% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UCSB -4.6 (-2.4) | 137.0 (+18.0) | 30% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UCSB -3.9 (-3.1) | 134.5 (+20.5) | 28% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UCSB -4.7 (-2.3) | 137.0 (+18.0) | 29% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UCSB -4.4 (-2.6) | 138.1 (+16.9) | 29% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 22, 2026 | HAW 78 – 75 UCSB |
| Jan 18, 2026 | UCSB 77 – 62 HAW |
| Feb 9, 2025 | UCSB 76 – 72 HAW |
| Jan 3, 2025 | UCSB 64 – 61 HAW |
| Feb 17, 2024 | UCSB 77 – 71 HAW |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | HAW | UCSB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-10 | 22-5 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 13-3 |
| Home | 7-5 | 11-0 |
| Away | 4-4 | 8-4 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.1 | 73.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.3 | 63.6 |
| Massey | 0.1 (#160) | 9.0 (#62) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.35 (#194) | 1.33 (#74) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.26 (#190) | 1.51 (#85) |
| RPI | 0.476 (#206) | 0.581 (#47) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | HAW | UCSB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.9% | 47.2% |
| 3PT% | 34.9% | 35.9% |
| REB / G | 34.6 | 34.4 |
| OREB / G | 9.7 | 8.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.87 | 1.50 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.6% | 53.3% |
| TOV% | 19.2% | 15.7% |
| ORB% | 29.3% | 27.3% |
| FT Rate | 21.1% | 25.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.2% | 45.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.7% | 21.3% |
| DRB% | 74.1% | 74.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.6% | 24.0% |
Game Analysis
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