Betting Lines
| Spread | NE -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 133.5 Under |
| Money | TOW +163 NE -150 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TOW win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TOW +11 | 125 | Won |
| Massey | NE -5.8 (+16.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 135.8 (-10.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 12% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 10% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NE -5.2 (+16.2) | 138.4 (-13.4) | 26% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NE -3.9 (+14.9) | 137.1 (-12.1) | 35% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NE -4.6 (+15.6) | 137.4 (-12.4) | 35% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | NE -5.2 (+16.2) | 138.4 (-13.4) | 31% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 10, 2026 | TOW 87 – 78 NE |
| Jan 28, 2025 | TOW 75 – 65 NE |
| Jan 10, 2025 | TOW 80 – 73 NE |
| Feb 2, 2024 | TOW 83 – 76 NE |
| Jan 13, 2024 | NE 67 – 59 TOW |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TOW | NE |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 4-14 | 10-9 |
| Conference | 3-9 | 8-2 |
| Home | 4-4 | 5-1 |
| Away | 0-6 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 0-4 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.4 | 67.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.9 | 68.3 |
| Massey | -7.2 (#275) | 1.1 (#147) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.56 (#289) | 0.87 (#107) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.90 (#288) | 0.79 (#125) |
| RPI | 0.416 (#302) | 0.574 (#59) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TOW | NE |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.0% | 45.3% |
| 3PT% | 28.9% | 36.4% |
| REB / G | 37.6 | 33.0 |
| OREB / G | 13.4 | 5.9 |
| AST / TO | 0.77 | 0.95 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.3% | 53.5% |
| TOV% | 18.4% | 20.5% |
| ORB% | 35.7% | 18.7% |
| FT Rate | 23.5% | 20.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.4% | 48.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.4% | 17.0% |
| DRB% | 69.1% | 75.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.9% | 19.8% |
Game Analysis
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