Betting Lines
| Spread | MORG -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Under |
| Money | MORG -175 NORF +180 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MORG win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NORF +3 | 133 | Lost |
| Massey | MORG -4.9 (-7.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 151.7 (-18.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 73% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 78% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MORG -5.4 (-8.4) | 151.1 (-18.1) | 73% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MORG -5.1 (-8.1) | 148.5 (-15.5) | 66% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MORG -4.7 (-7.7) | 153.4 (-20.4) | 68% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | MORG -4.7 (-7.7) | 152.3 (-19.3) | 71% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 2, 2026 | MORG 90 – 84 NORF |
| Jan 27, 2026 | MORG 79 – 78 NORF |
| Mar 14, 2025 | NORF 58 – 55 MORG |
| Feb 25, 2025 | NORF 69 – 60 MORG |
| Jan 14, 2025 | MORG 78 – 74 NORF |
Game Analysis
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