Betting Lines
| Spread | UCI -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 124.5 Over |
| Money | UCR +120 UCI -110 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UCR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UCR +21 | 151 | Won |
| Massey | UCR -3.9 (+17.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 121.0 (+30.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 52% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 50% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UCR -3.8 (+17.2) | 128.0 (+23.0) | 67% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UCR -2.5 (+18.5) | 129.7 (+21.3) | 49% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UCR -3.4 (+17.6) | 128.8 (+22.2) | 64% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UCR -3.6 (+17.4) | 129.0 (+22.0) | 63% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 23, 2026 | UCI 80 – 66 UCR |
| Dec 5, 2025 | UCI 73 – 60 UCR |
| Jan 24, 2025 | UCR 84 – 80 UCI |
| Jan 5, 2025 | UCI 81 – 57 UCR |
| Feb 11, 2024 | UCR 88 – 78 UCI |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UCR | UCI |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-8 | 18-9 |
| Conference | 8-4 | 10-4 |
| Home | 5-4 | 10-1 |
| Away | 7-3 | 6-6 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.2 | 68.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 63.6 | 64.1 |
| Massey | 5.6 (#93) | 4.3 (#109) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.27 (#157) | 0.62 (#129) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.51 (#147) | 1.02 (#110) |
| RPI | 0.485 (#196) | 0.533 (#113) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UCR | UCI |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.9% | 42.5% |
| 3PT% | 38.2% | 32.2% |
| REB / G | 38.5 | 37.1 |
| OREB / G | 9.4 | 10.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.13 | 0.81 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.9% | 46.6% |
| TOV% | 19.2% | 20.2% |
| ORB% | 28.2% | 32.0% |
| FT Rate | 13.7% | 21.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 42.4% | 45.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.5% | 19.6% |
| DRB% | 76.5% | 74.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.5% | 22.7% |
Game Analysis
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