Betting Lines
| Spread | UNCG -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Over |
| Money | MER +125 UNCG -120 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MER win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNCG +3 | 151 | Lost |
| Massey | UNCG -0.2 (-2.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.0 (+9.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 51% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 50% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MER -0.6 (-3.6) | 141.6 (+9.4) | 52% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNCG -1.5 (-1.5) | 143.4 (+7.6) | 40% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNCG -0.0 (-3.0) | 146.9 (+4.1) | 44% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MER -0.0 (-3.0) | 142.8 (+8.2) | 47% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 30, 2026 | MER 95 – 77 UNCG |
| Jan 17, 2026 | MER 102 – 92 UNCG |
| Feb 22, 2025 | UNCG 78 – 61 MER |
| Jan 23, 2025 | MER 79 – 78 UNCG |
| Feb 24, 2024 | MER 86 – 72 UNCG |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MER | UNCG |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-11 | 21-9 |
| Conference | 8-9 | 13-5 |
| Home | 9-4 | 7-3 |
| Away | 6-6 | 10-3 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 4-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.5 | 73.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.6 | 67.3 |
| Massey | 2.3 (#129) | 5.1 (#99) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.57 (#137) | 0.99 (#96) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.79 (#130) | 1.27 (#98) |
| RPI | 0.528 (#123) | 0.561 (#69) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MER | UNCG |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.7% | 42.0% |
| 3PT% | 36.5% | 28.8% |
| REB / G | 35.2 | 39.7 |
| OREB / G | 9.2 | 13.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.25 | 1.00 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.7% | 47.6% |
| TOV% | 18.2% | 17.0% |
| ORB% | 27.3% | 32.8% |
| FT Rate | 19.7% | 17.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.7% | 46.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.4% | 21.9% |
| DRB% | 72.1% | 73.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.1% | 27.6% |
Game Analysis
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