Betting Lines
| Spread | UVA -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 128.5 Under |
| Money | UVA -250 UNC +250 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UVA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UVA +12 | 108 | Won |
| Massey | UVA -8.5 (+3.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 129.4 (-21.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 80% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UVA -8.1 (+3.9) | 131.2 (-23.2) | 79% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UVA -7.1 (+4.9) | 121.9 (-13.9) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UVA -8.3 (+3.7) | 125.8 (-17.8) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UVA -8.3 (+3.7) | 132.1 (-24.1) | 76% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 24, 2026 | UNC 85 – 80 UVA |
| Feb 22, 2025 | UNC 81 – 66 UVA |
| Feb 24, 2024 | UNC 54 – 44 UVA |
| Mar 10, 2023 | UVA 68 – 59 UNC |
| Feb 25, 2023 | UNC 71 – 63 UVA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UVA | UNC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-7 | 18-11 |
| Conference | 13-4 | 10-6 |
| Home | 10-1 | 10-1 |
| Away | 6-3 | 3-7 |
| Neutral | 2-4 | 5-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.6 | 75.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 58.2 | 69.9 |
| Massey | 16.2 (#12) | 10.2 (#51) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.92 (#10) | 1.97 (#50) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.17 (#7) | 2.69 (#41) |
| RPI | 0.622 (#12) | 0.588 (#38) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UVA | UNC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.5% | 44.0% |
| 3PT% | 39.5% | 32.0% |
| REB / G | 31.7 | 42.6 |
| OREB / G | 6.1 | 15.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.50 | 1.00 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 57.9% | 48.4% |
| TOV% | 15.4% | 20.9% |
| ORB% | 22.3% | 40.0% |
| FT Rate | 17.3% | 23.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.7% | 50.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.3% | 19.0% |
| DRB% | 78.5% | 75.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.5% | 18.2% |
Game Analysis
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