Betting Lines
| Spread | FSU -13.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Over |
| Money | FSU -1200 WAKE +900 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FSU +7 | 177 | Won |
| Massey | FSU -11.2 (-4.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.8 (+33.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FSU -10.9 (-3.9) | 143.1 (+33.9) | 86% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FSU -9.3 (-2.3) | 139.1 (+37.9) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FSU -9.8 (-2.8) | 142.2 (+34.8) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | FSU -9.8 (-2.8) | 143.4 (+33.6) | 82% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 17, 2026 | WAKE 69 – 68 FSU |
| Feb 13, 2025 | FSU 72 – 70 WAKE |
| Jan 10, 2024 | FSU 87 – 82 WAKE |
| Jan 12, 2023 | WAKE 90 – 75 FSU |
| Feb 5, 2022 | WAKE 68 – 60 FSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FSU | WAKE |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-7 | 6-16 |
| Conference | 11-4 | 3-15 |
| Home | 12-1 | 5-6 |
| Away | 3-4 | 1-9 |
| Neutral | 4-2 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L8 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.2 | 66.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.5 | 72.4 |
| Massey | 13.9 (#19) | 5.3 (#96) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.47 (#27) | 0.28 (#156) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.14 (#26) | 0.51 (#148) |
| RPI | 0.593 (#34) | 0.474 (#214) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FSU | WAKE |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.3% | 42.9% |
| 3PT% | 37.9% | 35.8% |
| REB / G | 37.2 | 34.1 |
| OREB / G | 11.8 | 9.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.05 | 0.84 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.2% | 51.0% |
| TOV% | 20.2% | 20.5% |
| ORB% | 36.3% | 27.7% |
| FT Rate | 24.3% | 21.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.9% | 52.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.3% | 19.1% |
| DRB% | 70.7% | 76.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.0% | 21.7% |
Game Analysis
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