Betting Lines
| Spread | BUF -14.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Under |
| Money | BUF -1200 WMU +1000 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BUF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BUF +32 | 140 | Won |
| Massey | BUF -16.4 (+15.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.4 (-4.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 89% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BUF -14.4 (+17.6) | 146.1 (-6.1) | 88% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BUF -13.5 (+18.5) | 143.8 (-3.8) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BUF -14.4 (+17.6) | 143.2 (-3.2) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BUF -14.3 (+17.7) | 145.8 (-5.8) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 20, 2025 | BUF 88 – 71 WMU |
| Feb 19, 2025 | WMU 97 – 64 BUF |
| Jan 18, 2025 | BUF 85 – 76 WMU |
| Feb 24, 2024 | WMU 91 – 72 BUF |
| Jan 6, 2024 | WMU 82 – 77 BUF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BUF | WMU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-9 | 5-16 |
| Conference | 12-5 | 4-12 |
| Home | 8-3 | 2-9 |
| Away | 5-3 | 3-7 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 81.4 | 63.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.9 | 73.5 |
| Massey | 7.3 (#81) | -6.6 (#271) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.07 (#165) | -1.58 (#290) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.55 (#144) | -1.86 (#283) |
| RPI | 0.504 (#165) | 0.435 (#270) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BUF | WMU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.0% | 43.3% |
| 3PT% | 34.2% | 32.7% |
| REB / G | 42.6 | 33.6 |
| OREB / G | 13.9 | 8.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.20 | 0.85 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.8% | 49.4% |
| TOV% | 17.8% | 20.5% |
| ORB% | 34.6% | 24.3% |
| FT Rate | 19.4% | 15.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.8% | 50.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.3% | 14.1% |
| DRB% | 72.1% | 72.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.5% | 20.0% |
Game Analysis
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