Betting Lines
| Spread | NWST -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 149.5 Under |
| Money | NWST -163 MCN +170 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NWST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NWST +3 | 135 | Won |
| Massey | NWST -8.1 (-5.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 157.2 (-22.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 86% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NWST -7.3 (-4.3) | 151.5 (-16.5) | 77% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NWST -6.2 (-3.2) | 148.0 (-13.0) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NWST -6.0 (-3.0) | 151.6 (-16.6) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NWST -6.5 (-3.5) | 150.6 (-15.6) | 75% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 17, 2026 | MCN 75 – 64 NWST |
| Dec 6, 2025 | MCN 92 – 54 NWST |
| Mar 11, 2025 | MCN 83 – 64 NWST |
| Feb 8, 2025 | MCN 65 – 50 NWST |
| Jan 7, 2025 | MCN 92 – 69 NWST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NWST | MCN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-18 | 10-14 |
| Conference | 9-7 | 4-10 |
| Home | 6-4 | 7-5 |
| Away | 4-12 | 3-8 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.5 | 71.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 81.0 | 78.1 |
| Massey | -10.1 (#312) | -15.6 (#339) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.19 (#323) | -3.55 (#340) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.31 (#328) | -4.85 (#341) |
| RPI | 0.438 (#267) | 0.333 (#348) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NWST | MCN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.2% | 45.8% |
| 3PT% | 31.7% | 37.9% |
| REB / G | 35.2 | 32.2 |
| OREB / G | 10.2 | 8.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.86 | 1.00 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.7% | 52.6% |
| TOV% | 19.6% | 22.4% |
| ORB% | 25.9% | 25.5% |
| FT Rate | 17.6% | 21.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.0% | 57.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.1% | 18.1% |
| DRB% | 68.1% | 70.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.8% | 21.9% |
Game Analysis
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