Betting Lines
| Spread | LR -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Under |
| Money | LR -225 ARST +240 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ARST +2 | 132 | Lost |
| Massey | LR -7.5 (-9.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.4 (-17.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 86% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 86% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LR -6.1 (-8.1) | 144.1 (-12.1) | 74% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LR -6.1 (-8.1) | 142.9 (-10.9) | 66% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LR -6.6 (-8.6) | 144.9 (-12.9) | 76% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | LR -6.3 (-8.3) | 144.9 (-12.9) | 76% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 7, 2025 | ARST 90 – 78 LR |
| Nov 13, 2024 | ARST 80 – 63 LR |
| Dec 2, 2023 | LR 77 – 66 ARST |
| Dec 22, 2022 | ARST 77 – 75 LR |
| Feb 13, 2021 | ARST 73 – 62 LR |
Game Analysis
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