Betting Lines
| Spread | ARST -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 133.5 Over |
| Money | ARST -250 LR +260 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ARST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ARST +2 | 152 | Won |
| Massey | ARST -7.7 (-5.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 137.0 (+15.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 86% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 92% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ARST -6.5 (-4.5) | 137.7 (+14.3) | 71% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ARST -7.5 (-5.5) | 135.1 (+16.9) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ARST -5.9 (-3.9) | 136.7 (+15.3) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ARST -6.5 (-4.5) | 137.8 (+14.2) | 71% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 7, 2025 | ARST 90 – 78 LR |
| Nov 13, 2024 | ARST 80 – 63 LR |
| Dec 2, 2023 | LR 77 – 66 ARST |
| Feb 13, 2021 | ARST 67 – 65 LR |
| Feb 13, 2021 | ARST 73 – 62 LR |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ARST | LR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-20 | 10-21 |
| Conference | 4-14 | 6-12 |
| Home | 10-8 | 8-5 |
| Away | 2-11 | 2-16 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 63.7 | 75.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.5 | 80.9 |
| Massey | -7.0 (#300) | -9.8 (#332) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.98 (#272) | -1.96 (#325) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.30 (#272) | -2.79 (#334) |
| RPI | 0.411 (#314) | 0.383 (#344) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ARST | LR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.5% | 41.7% |
| 3PT% | 31.1% | 29.0% |
| REB / G | 34.4 | 33.7 |
| OREB / G | 9.8 | 11.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.01 | 0.91 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.9% | 47.0% |
| TOV% | 19.6% | 19.5% |
| ORB% | 29.1% | 29.9% |
| FT Rate | 20.5% | 22.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.0% | 57.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.7% | 19.9% |
| DRB% | 74.0% | 65.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.2% | 24.7% |
Game Analysis
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