Betting Lines
| Spread | ARST -9.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Over |
| Money | LR +310 ARST -395 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ARST +12 | 168 | Lost |
| Massey | ARST -8.9 (-3.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 151.2 (+16.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 10% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 4% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ARST -7.7 (-4.3) | 143.1 (+24.9) | 25% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ARST -9.1 (-2.9) | 143.2 (+24.8) | 16% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ARST -6.0 (-6.0) | 143.1 (+24.9) | 24% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ARST -7.3 (-4.7) | 143.4 (+24.6) | 29% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 13, 2024 | ARST 80 – 63 LR |
| Dec 2, 2023 | LR 77 – 66 ARST |
| Dec 22, 2022 | ARST 77 – 75 LR |
| Feb 13, 2021 | ARST 67 – 65 LR |
| Feb 13, 2021 | ARST 73 – 62 LR |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LR | ARST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-20 | 20-12 |
| Conference | 9-11 | 11-7 |
| Home | 7-6 | 11-4 |
| Away | 5-13 | 9-7 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.9 | 81.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.2 | 78.0 |
| Massey | -14.5 (#350) | -0.9 (#176) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.72 (#307) | 1.50 (#75) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.62 (#313) | 1.59 (#98) |
| RPI | 0.367 (#345) | 0.600 (#47) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LR | ARST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.5% | 41.5% |
| 3PT% | 35.5% | 28.1% |
| REB / G | 30.7 | 39.4 |
| OREB / G | 11.3 | 13.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.70 | 0.82 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.4% | 47.5% |
| TOV% | 26.2% | 21.5% |
| ORB% | 33.2% | 35.4% |
| FT Rate | 13.8% | 32.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 60.5% | 51.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.3% | 16.0% |
| DRB% | 65.4% | 68.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.4% | 28.5% |
Game Analysis
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