Betting Lines
| Spread | LR -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Under |
| Money | ARST +160 LR -150 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ARST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ARST +11 | 135 | Won |
| Massey | LR -2.4 (+13.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.4 (-14.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 28% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 30% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LR -0.6 (+11.6) | 145.8 (-10.8) | 48% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ARST -0.7 (+10.3) | 142.6 (-7.6) | 58% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LR -0.4 (+11.4) | 147.7 (-12.7) | 42% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | LR -0.8 (+11.8) | 147.2 (-12.2) | 50% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 7, 2025 | ARST 90 – 78 LR |
| Nov 13, 2024 | ARST 80 – 63 LR |
| Dec 2, 2023 | LR 77 – 66 ARST |
| Dec 22, 2022 | ARST 77 – 75 LR |
| Feb 13, 2021 | ARST 67 – 65 LR |
Game Analysis
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