Betting Lines
| Spread | ARST -14.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 157.5 Under |
| Money | ARST -1600 LR +800 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ARST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ARST +17 | 143 | Won |
| Massey | ARST -13.9 (+3.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 162.3 (-19.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ARST -10.3 (+6.7) | 151.3 (-8.3) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ARST -9.7 (+7.3) | 152.0 (-9.0) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ARST -7.5 (+9.5) | 148.7 (-5.7) | 77% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 7, 2025 | ARST 90 – 78 LR |
| Dec 2, 2023 | LR 77 – 66 ARST |
| Dec 22, 2022 | ARST 77 – 75 LR |
| Feb 13, 2021 | ARST 67 – 65 LR |
| Feb 13, 2021 | ARST 73 – 62 LR |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ARST | LR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-11 | 19-14 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 12-8 |
| Home | 14-2 | 9-5 |
| Away | 8-6 | 9-7 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-1 | 0-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.7 | 68.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.5 | 67.7 |
| Massey | 2.8 (#117) | -0.2 (#180) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.08 (#169) | -0.59 (#248) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.06 (#173) | -0.83 (#255) |
| RPI | 0.667 (#63) | 0.250 (#293) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ARST | LR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.7% | 34.4% |
| 3PT% | 25.9% | 32.0% |
| REB / G | 42.5 | 32.0 |
| OREB / G | 9.5 | 14.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.89 | 0.50 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.3% | 40.6% |
| TOV% | 17.1% | 24.7% |
| ORB% | 22.4% | 31.1% |
| FT Rate | 19.3% | 23.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 43.4% | 50.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.8% | 29.0% |
| DRB% | 66.7% | 46.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.5% | 49.1% |
Game Analysis
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