Betting Lines
| Spread | LR -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 157.5 Under |
| Money | LR -110 ARST +120 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LR +11 | 143 | Won |
| Massey | LR -11.0 (-0.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 172.7 (-29.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LR -6.2 (+4.8) | 157.7 (-14.7) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LR -8.0 (+3.0) | 158.4 (-15.4) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | LR -8.2 (+2.8) | 161.2 (-18.2) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LR -8.4 (+2.6) | 162.5 (-19.5) | 80% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 7, 2025 | ARST 90 – 78 LR |
| Nov 13, 2024 | ARST 80 – 63 LR |
| Dec 22, 2022 | ARST 77 – 75 LR |
| Feb 13, 2021 | ARST 67 – 65 LR |
| Feb 13, 2021 | ARST 73 – 62 LR |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LR | ARST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-13 | 20-17 |
| Conference | 14-4 | 11-7 |
| Home | 14-4 | 10-3 |
| Away | 6-6 | 5-11 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 5-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.3 | 78.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.5 | 77.0 |
| Massey | 0.2 (#165) | -4.6 (#258) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.12 (#201) | -1.97 (#314) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.05 (#194) | -3.17 (#320) |
| RPI | 0.503 (#171) | 0.397 (#314) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LR | ARST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.9% | 41.8% |
| 3PT% | 30.4% | 35.5% |
| REB / G | 34.4 | 38.3 |
| OREB / G | 11.9 | 13.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.30 | 1.11 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.9% | 49.8% |
| TOV% | 15.0% | 18.9% |
| ORB% | 30.6% | 33.0% |
| FT Rate | 28.2% | 21.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.0% | 49.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.9% | 13.3% |
| DRB% | 64.8% | 70.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 34.6% | 36.1% |
Game Analysis
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