Betting Lines
| Spread | FRES -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 126.5 Over |
| Money | AF +188 FRES -175 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | AF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FRES +3 | 131 | Lost |
| Massey | FRES -3.5 (+0.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 124.2 (+6.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 30% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 21% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FRES -2.7 (-0.3) | 128.0 (+3.0) | 37% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FRES -3.7 (+0.7) | 124.3 (+6.7) | 28% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FRES -3.2 (+0.2) | 127.0 (+4.0) | 33% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | FRES -2.3 (-0.7) | 128.7 (+2.3) | 38% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 14, 2026 | FRES 93 – 63 AF |
| Jan 31, 2026 | FRES 79 – 62 AF |
| Feb 22, 2025 | AF 72 – 69 FRES |
| Jan 18, 2025 | FRES 74 – 65 AF |
| Feb 10, 2024 | FRES 68 – 66 AF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | AF | FRES |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 5-20 | 12-12 |
| Conference | 3-17 | 9-11 |
| Home | 3-8 | 7-5 |
| Away | 1-10 | 4-6 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 58.7 | 64.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.9 | 68.5 |
| Massey | -11.2 (#325) | -5.2 (#250) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.30 (#269) | -0.02 (#173) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.92 (#289) | -0.10 (#176) |
| RPI | 0.421 (#290) | 0.486 (#192) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | AF | FRES |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.5% | 42.8% |
| 3PT% | 35.4% | 29.9% |
| REB / G | 23.3 | 35.5 |
| OREB / G | 4.1 | 11.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.87 | 0.67 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.8% | 48.9% |
| TOV% | 23.0% | 22.5% |
| ORB% | 14.8% | 31.4% |
| FT Rate | 20.9% | 24.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 57.8% | 50.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.6% | 19.9% |
| DRB% | 65.2% | 73.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.9% | 25.4% |
Game Analysis
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