Betting Lines
| Spread | UCD -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 149.5 Over |
| Money | UCD -250 LBSU +260 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UCD win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UCD +2 | 154 | Won |
| Massey | UCD -8.2 (-6.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 161.8 (-7.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 65% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UCD -6.6 (-4.6) | 155.9 (-1.9) | 76% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UCD -5.8 (-3.8) | 153.8 (+0.2) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UCD -6.2 (-4.2) | 154.4 (-0.4) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UCD -5.9 (-3.9) | 154.6 (-0.6) | 75% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 6, 2026 | UCD 76 – 70 LBSU |
| Feb 14, 2026 | UCD 71 – 54 LBSU |
| Feb 7, 2025 | UCD 73 – 65 LBSU |
| Jan 11, 2025 | LBSU 84 – 73 UCD |
| Mar 17, 2024 | LBSU 74 – 70 UCD |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UCD | LBSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-8 | 6-12 |
| Conference | 6-4 | 4-8 |
| Home | 4-3 | 4-3 |
| Away | 4-3 | 1-8 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.6 | 73.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.2 | 79.4 |
| Massey | -5.0 (#248) | -10.7 (#317) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.71 (#231) | -0.89 (#244) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.10 (#244) | -1.67 (#274) |
| RPI | 0.456 (#239) | 0.432 (#275) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UCD | LBSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.3% | 44.5% |
| 3PT% | 32.5% | 38.0% |
| REB / G | 32.4 | 32.3 |
| OREB / G | 9.2 | 7.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.80 | 0.69 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.7% | 50.9% |
| TOV% | 20.1% | 21.6% |
| ORB% | 26.8% | 21.6% |
| FT Rate | 30.0% | 28.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 56.1% | 52.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.4% | 18.0% |
| DRB% | 74.1% | 64.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.3% | 26.3% |
Game Analysis
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