Betting Lines
| Spread | LIP -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 133.5 Under |
| Money | JAX +260 LIP -250 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | JAX win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | JAX +6 | 126 | Won |
| Massey | LIP -3.3 (+9.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 134.4 (-8.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 24% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 21% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LIP -4.2 (+10.2) | 134.7 (-8.7) | 32% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LIP -2.4 (+8.4) | 132.9 (-6.9) | 38% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LIP -3.5 (+9.5) | 134.2 (-8.2) | 31% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | LIP -4.0 (+10.0) | 135.1 (-9.1) | 29% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 30, 2026 | JAX 70 – 65 LIP |
| Jan 1, 2026 | LIP 76 – 57 JAX |
| Jan 3, 2025 | LIP 70 – 65 JAX |
| Feb 3, 2024 | LIP 84 – 82 JAX |
| Feb 19, 2023 | LIP 62 – 59 JAX |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | JAX | LIP |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-13 | 15-12 |
| Conference | 5-9 | 9-6 |
| Home | 7-5 | 10-4 |
| Away | 4-8 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.7 | 68.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.1 | 70.2 |
| Massey | -9.7 (#309) | -3.8 (#227) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.00 (#316) | -0.42 (#206) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.28 (#305) | -0.47 (#202) |
| RPI | 0.384 (#335) | 0.498 (#175) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | JAX | LIP |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.5% | 45.2% |
| 3PT% | 30.5% | 36.5% |
| REB / G | 32.4 | 32.4 |
| OREB / G | 9.0 | 7.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.71 | 1.09 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.5% | 51.6% |
| TOV% | 20.4% | 18.0% |
| ORB% | 25.3% | 23.2% |
| FT Rate | 21.4% | 28.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.5% | 51.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.9% | 17.7% |
| DRB% | 68.2% | 70.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.9% | 15.0% |
Game Analysis
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