Betting Lines
| Spread | LAF -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Over |
| Money | LAF -125 L-MD +140 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LAF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LAF +3 | 191 | Won |
| Massey | LAF -3.6 (-0.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.3 (+44.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 84% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LAF -3.6 (-0.6) | 143.8 (+47.2) | 67% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LAF -3.3 (-0.3) | 141.8 (+49.2) | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LAF -4.9 (-1.9) | 145.2 (+45.8) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | LAF -3.8 (-0.8) | 144.3 (+46.7) | 69% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 12, 2026 | L-MD 68 – 54 LAF |
| Jan 3, 2026 | LAF 79 – 64 L-MD |
| Feb 6, 2025 | L-MD 71 – 58 LAF |
| Jan 23, 2025 | LAF 80 – 59 L-MD |
| Feb 15, 2024 | L-MD 79 – 64 LAF |
Game Analysis
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