Betting Lines
| Spread | AAMU -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 135.5 Under |
| Money | ALST +188 AAMU -175 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ALST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ALST +14 | 130 | Won |
| Massey | AAMU -8.2 (+22.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 130.1 (-0.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 5% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 2% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | AAMU -6.2 (+20.2) | 129.3 (+0.7) | 25% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | AAMU -3.9 (+17.9) | 135.5 (-5.5) | 37% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | AAMU -4.1 (+18.1) | 133.7 (-3.7) | 32% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | AAMU -6.3 (+20.3) | 128.8 (+1.2) | 26% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | ALST 89 – 88 AAMU |
| Jan 19, 2026 | AAMU 73 – 69 ALST |
| Mar 1, 2025 | ALST 94 – 52 AAMU |
| Jan 18, 2025 | ALST 69 – 65 AAMU |
| Mar 2, 2024 | AAMU 58 – 53 ALST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ALST | AAMU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 4-14 | 6-9 |
| Conference | 4-14 | 4-9 |
| Home | 3-6 | 5-2 |
| Away | 1-8 | 1-7 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L6 | L7 |
| Avg Pts For | 64.2 | 63.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.6 | 67.2 |
| Massey | -19.8 (#346) | -9.1 (#301) |
| Bradley-Terry | -3.05 (#336) | 0.26 (#159) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -4.76 (#340) | -0.59 (#211) |
| RPI | 0.357 (#341) | 0.487 (#191) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ALST | AAMU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 37.2% | 41.6% |
| 3PT% | 29.9% | 27.5% |
| REB / G | 38.6 | 41.1 |
| OREB / G | 12.9 | 12.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.59 | 0.94 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 42.2% | 46.4% |
| TOV% | 22.9% | 19.7% |
| ORB% | 32.1% | 30.3% |
| FT Rate | 27.6% | 22.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.7% | 43.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.4% | 19.7% |
| DRB% | 71.8% | 69.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.6% | 24.1% |
Game Analysis
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