Betting Lines
| Spread | MOST -7.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 133.5 Over |
| Money | MOST -333 BRAD +333 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MOST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MOST +22 | 138 | Won |
| Massey | MOST -3.4 (+18.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 135.9 (+2.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 82% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MOST -3.4 (+18.6) | 135.8 (+2.2) | 68% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MOST -2.6 (+19.4) | 132.6 (+5.4) | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MOST -4.3 (+17.7) | 136.0 (+2.0) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MOST -3.6 (+18.4) | 135.6 (+2.4) | 70% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 5, 2025 | BRAD 69 – 60 MOST |
| Feb 22, 2024 | BRAD 86 – 62 MOST |
| Jan 6, 2024 | BRAD 86 – 60 MOST |
| Feb 16, 2023 | BRAD 64 – 54 MOST |
| Dec 4, 2022 | BRAD 58 – 40 MOST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MOST | BRAD |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-7 | 12-16 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 6-12 |
| Home | 9-4 | 8-6 |
| Away | 7-2 | 2-9 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.5 | 67.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.3 | 68.1 |
| Massey | 4.3 (#110) | 3.4 (#119) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.95 (#100) | -0.10 (#180) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.98 (#114) | -0.19 (#181) |
| RPI | 0.529 (#119) | 0.508 (#155) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MOST | BRAD |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.8% | 44.2% |
| 3PT% | 31.9% | 31.9% |
| REB / G | 35.9 | 37.5 |
| OREB / G | 7.4 | 10.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.03 | 1.05 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.5% | 49.9% |
| TOV% | 18.1% | 19.4% |
| ORB% | 22.7% | 29.1% |
| FT Rate | 26.9% | 17.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.5% | 48.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.0% | 18.8% |
| DRB% | 76.4% | 73.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.4% | 20.7% |
Game Analysis
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