Betting Lines
| Spread | UTSA -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 149.5 Over |
| Money | UTSA -188 FAU +188 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UTSA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UTSA +11 | 161 | Won |
| Massey | UTSA -1.5 (+9.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 150.2 (+10.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 70% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UTSA -2.2 (+8.8) | 149.4 (+11.6) | 64% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UTSA -1.2 (+9.8) | 145.3 (+15.7) | 60% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UTSA -1.7 (+9.3) | 148.6 (+12.4) | 63% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UTSA -2.7 (+8.3) | 150.0 (+11.0) | 65% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 19, 2026 | FAU 60 – 52 UTSA |
| Dec 31, 2025 | FAU 110 – 70 UTSA |
| Jan 30, 2025 | FAU 94 – 74 UTSA |
| Jan 21, 2024 | FAU 112 – 103 UTSA |
| Feb 24, 2023 | FAU 106 – 66 UTSA |
Game Analysis
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