Betting Lines
| Spread | SPU -10.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 125.5 Under |
| Money | SPU -600 FAIR +550 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SPU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FAIR +5 | 105 | Lost |
| Massey | SPU -14.2 (-19.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 124.9 (-19.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 95% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 97% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SPU -10.0 (-15.0) | 129.8 (-24.8) | 85% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SPU -9.2 (-14.2) | 129.0 (-24.0) | 77% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SPU -9.2 (-14.2) | 130.1 (-25.1) | 76% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | SPU -10.0 (-15.0) | 129.0 (-24.0) | 75% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 7, 2026 | FAIR 74 – 55 SPU |
| Feb 15, 2026 | SPU 83 – 74 FAIR |
| Dec 30, 2025 | SPU 70 – 66 FAIR |
| Feb 15, 2025 | SPU 65 – 52 FAIR |
| Mar 16, 2024 | SPU 68 – 63 FAIR |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SPU | FAIR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-11 | 10-17 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 7-11 |
| Home | 8-3 | 4-8 |
| Away | 4-7 | 3-8 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 63.2 | 61.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 61.5 | 66.7 |
| Massey | 0.6 (#157) | -11.1 (#323) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.86 (#109) | -1.68 (#298) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.02 (#111) | -1.95 (#290) |
| RPI | 0.563 (#68) | 0.405 (#312) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SPU | FAIR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.9% | 39.9% |
| 3PT% | 35.5% | 30.1% |
| REB / G | 38.1 | 34.6 |
| OREB / G | 11.0 | 9.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.83 | 0.84 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.9% | 45.4% |
| TOV% | 21.8% | 19.4% |
| ORB% | 29.7% | 27.9% |
| FT Rate | 20.2% | 20.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.6% | 52.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.8% | 16.2% |
| DRB% | 70.4% | 74.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.0% | 20.4% |
Game Analysis
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