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Baseline Tuned — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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71–37 on winners spread MAE 8.5 108 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Siena @ Marist +8.7 135.1 83% 67–60 ✗
Quinnipiac @ Rider +0.0 141.2 50% 77–70 ✗
Monmouth @ Saint Peter's -9.0 135.1 21% 62–67 ✗
Manhattan @ Iona +13.7 151.5 88% 76–88 ✓
VCU @ St. Bonaventure -0.7 132.5 46% 53–73 ✗
Akron @ Kent State +0.3 133.8 49% 55–67 ✓
Michigan @ Illinois +10.4 145.9 84% 53–68 ✓
Davidson @ Richmond -2.0 143.5 40% 87–84 ✓
Fresno State @ UNLV -1.3 131.4 44% 73–68 ✓
Northwestern @ Michigan State +10.3 148.9 83% 64–62 ✗
Creighton @ Xavier +9.3 141.6 82% 73–80 ✓
Texas Tech @ Kansas State -5.7 128.1 26% 51–62 ✗
Seton Hall @ Marquette +2.1 151.8 59% 72–73 ✓
Dayton @ Duquesne -2.9 137.5 38% 72–52 ✓
Tennessee @ Kentucky +4.2 143.2 70% 79–107 ✓
UTSA @ Charlotte +14.2 146.4 89% 53–62 ✓
St. Francis Brooklyn @ Wagner +15.5 134.4 90% 76–81 ✓
Mount St. Mary's @ Bryant +4.7 145.5 69% 66–73 ✓
Vermont @ UMBC -4.8 143.5 29% 86–69 ✓
Oakland @ Purdue Fort Wayne -8.2 143.0 21% 76–68 ✓
VMI @ The Citadel +0.6 156.2 52% 90–85 ✗
Florida @ South Carolina -0.4 140.5 51% 71–63 ✓
NC State @ Duke +15.5 155.2 88% 73–88 ✓
West Virginia @ Kansas +10.6 143.5 83% 59–85 ✓
Arkansas @ LSU +12.1 141.8 86% 65–58 ✗
Texas @ Iowa State +2.4 123.9 57% 70–79 ✓
SMU @ Tulane +0.3 147.2 53% 75–66 ✗
Morehead State @ Tennessee State -8.5 141.6 22% 71–64 ✓
Fairleigh Dickinson @ Sacred Heart +6.5 141.2 79% 71–77 ✓
Central Connecticut @ Long Island University +9.3 142.1 82% 61–83 ✓
South Carolina Upstate @ UNC Asheville +10.7 145.0 85% 76–73 ✗
Radford @ Campbell +6.3 130.4 71% 58–70 ✓
Harvard @ Columbia -7.0 146.6 24% 91–82 ✓
Dartmouth @ Pennsylvania +2.5 138.8 63% 68–78 ✓
Cornell @ Yale +2.5 154.4 65% 69–96 ✓
Brown @ Princeton +6.8 147.5 80% 74–76 ✓
App State @ Coastal Carolina +4.5 131.2 67% 84–76 ✗
Western Illinois @ North Dakota State +3.8 147.8 69% 90–79 ✗
Wofford @ Western Carolina -6.1 147.5 30% 84–64 ✓
UNC Greensboro @ Mercer +1.0 132.1 55% 49–58 ✓
Delaware @ Hofstra +5.0 150.2 70% 77–82 ✓
Drexel @ Northeastern +0.4 140.0 51% 76–68 ✗
Miami (OH) @ Western Michigan -9.3 148.7 19% 70–62 ✓
Rutgers @ Maryland +3.6 138.6 66% 70–59 ✗
Fordham @ Saint Louis +9.5 141.0 82% 45–63 ✓
Tennessee Tech @ UT Martin +1.8 144.9 56% 76–70 ✗
Stephen F. Austin @ Sam Houston +0.0 142.3 52% 41–49 ✓
Saint Francis @ Merrimack +4.1 132.3 69% 62–46 ✗
Gardner-Webb @ Longwood +3.7 140.8 65% 60–66 ✓
Florida State @ Syracuse +1.8 151.6 61% 76–71 ✗
IU Indianapolis @ Milwaukee +10.5 128.9 85% 54–89 ✓
UL Monroe @ UT Arlington +5.5 147.2 74% 62–55 ✗
Denver @ South Dakota State +15.3 159.2 88% 62–80 ✓
Furman @ Chattanooga +7.7 143.3 77% 69–71 ✓
East Tennessee State @ Samford +2.1 145.0 62% 88–85 ✗
Detroit Mercy @ Cleveland State +4.5 146.0 74% 70–72 ✓
Texas A&M @ Missouri -8.0 142.4 20% 67–64 ✓
Gonzaga @ Santa Clara -7.8 163.3 20% 115–83 ✓
Norfolk State @ Howard +4.0 143.2 68% 77–74 ✗
Memphis @ East Carolina -3.8 152.0 36% 71–72 ✗
California @ Washington State +8.6 130.7 80% 57–65 ✓
Coppin State @ Morgan State -1.6 146.6 41% 79–76 ✓
UC Riverside @ Cal State Bakersfield -2.5 121.7 41% 65–64 ✓
Texas Southern @ Alcorn State -0.6 136.0 48% 72–73 ✗
North Texas @ Western Kentucky -0.1 132.5 46% 65–60 ✓
Florida Atlantic @ UAB +14.5 145.3 88% 65–76 ✓
Utah Tech @ Seattle U +9.7 147.4 85% 68–79 ✓
Chicago State @ Lamar +2.2 134.0 54% 67–56 ✗
Louisville @ Pittsburgh -2.4 132.7 41% 53–65 ✗
NJIT @ UAlbany +0.9 129.1 56% 56–71 ✓
Kennesaw State @ Stetson +0.8 137.5 52% 77–49 ✗
North Alabama @ Central Arkansas -2.7 143.7 36% 88–89 ✗
Oklahoma @ TCU +1.5 136.0 60% 58–59 ✓
James Madison @ William & Mary -11.2 138.3 15% 95–91 ✓
Towson @ Elon -10.0 140.0 17% 59–54 ✓
Incarnate Word @ Texas A&M-Corpus Christi +12.4 142.2 88% 64–80 ✓
Wake Forest @ Virginia +0.7 130.1 54% 63–55 ✗
Rhode Island @ Massachusetts -2.2 147.9 42% 81–68 ✓
Eastern Michigan @ Northern Illinois -1.1 141.7 48% 70–77 ✗
Oklahoma State @ Baylor +14.3 143.7 88% 61–54 ✗
Bethune-Cookman @ Mississippi Valley State -5.6 142.5 26% 62–60 ✓
Murray State @ Belmont +6.0 148.0 74% 82–60 ✗
Portland State @ Sacramento State +5.0 134.3 69% 67–62 ✗
Northwestern State @ SE Louisiana +9.2 156.1 84% 74–79 ✓
Houston Christian @ McNeese +10.8 145.0 86% 75–78 ✓
Jacksonville @ North Florida -5.7 130.2 24% 54–51 ✓
Bellarmine @ Lipscomb +0.4 147.5 54% 77–71 ✗
Louisiana @ Texas State +4.7 138.1 71% 68–72 ✓
Missouri State @ Valparaiso -2.2 144.3 41% 74–57 ✓
Omaha @ South Dakota +7.6 148.1 80% 70–105 ✓
Toledo @ Bowling Green -5.3 156.2 29% 91–78 ✓
Nevada @ Air Force -1.0 134.9 46% 75–68 ✓
Alabama A&M @ Alabama State +2.1 134.7 59% 55–59 ✓
Nicholls @ LSU New Orleans -3.5 152.4 37% 66–78 ✗
Winthrop @ Charleston Southern -9.9 156.3 16% 70–65 ✓
Georgia Southern @ South Alabama +6.5 141.4 78% 67–73 ✓
Boise State @ New Mexico -7.2 145.7 23% 71–63 ✓
Alabama @ Mississippi State -0.0 150.3 52% 76–78 ✗
Stanford @ Washington -2.6 141.3 36% 64–67 ✗
Florida International @ Middle Tennessee +9.7 142.2 82% 39–50 ✓
Abilene Christian @ New Mexico State +7.3 141.6 79% 63–77 ✓
Notre Dame @ Virginia Tech +6.1 131.2 73% 73–79 ✓
Vanderbilt @ Georgia -5.7 141.9 26% 73–66 ✓
Colorado State @ San José State -7.5 146.9 22% 78–42 ✓
Prairie View A&M @ Jackson State +7.0 137.2 76% 63–73 ✓
Southern @ Grambling -6.5 140.3 24% 77–83 ✗
Florida A&M @ Arkansas-Pine Bluff -2.5 135.0 35% 71–66 ✓
Boston College @ Clemson +10.5 139.1 84% 70–68 ✗

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.