Betting Lines
| Spread | BEL -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 149.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BEL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MUR +22 | 142 | Lost |
| Massey | BEL -5.8 (-27.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.8 (-4.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 75% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 84% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BEL -5.8 (-27.8) | 146.1 (-4.1) | 72% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BEL -6.0 (-28.0) | 148.0 (-6.0) | 74% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | BEL -6.0 (-28.0) | 148.4 (-6.4) | 71% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BEL -5.7 (-27.7) | 147.1 (-5.1) | 72% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 15, 2026 | BEL 87 – 70 MUR |
| Feb 1, 2026 | BEL 103 – 86 MUR |
| Mar 2, 2025 | BEL 70 – 60 MUR |
| Jan 25, 2025 | BEL 95 – 77 MUR |
| Feb 29, 2024 | BEL 83 – 61 MUR |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BEL | MUR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-8 | 31-3 |
| Conference | 15-3 | 18-0 |
| Home | 13-1 | 15-0 |
| Away | 10-5 | 11-1 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 5-2 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.1 | 76.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.1 | 63.4 |
| Massey | 12.3 (#26) | 10.4 (#38) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.65 (#28) | 2.26 (#43) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.41 (#29) | 2.50 (#51) |
| RPI | 0.615 (#26) | 0.608 (#33) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BEL | MUR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 50.1% | 46.4% |
| 3PT% | 35.5% | 36.5% |
| REB / G | 34.1 | 37.4 |
| OREB / G | 8.1 | 12.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.51 | 1.02 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 57.5% | 53.1% |
| TOV% | 17.1% | 19.3% |
| ORB% | 26.0% | 35.9% |
| FT Rate | 17.2% | 21.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.1% | 49.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.4% | 22.2% |
| DRB% | 71.3% | 71.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 15.4% | 17.3% |
Game Analysis
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