Betting Lines
| Spread | MOST -4.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | VAL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MOST +17 | 131 | Lost |
| Massey | MOST -3.2 (-13.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.3 (-9.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 44% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 36% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MOST -2.9 (-14.1) | 141.9 (-10.9) | 35% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MOST -2.2 (-14.8) | 144.3 (-13.3) | 41% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MOST -2.6 (-14.4) | 145.4 (-14.4) | 38% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MOST -2.6 (-14.4) | 145.0 (-14.0) | 39% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 20, 2025 | VAL 66 – 64 MOST |
| Jan 2, 2025 | VAL 73 – 72 MOST |
| Feb 17, 2024 | MOST 82 – 74 VAL |
| Jan 27, 2024 | MOST 81 – 70 VAL |
| Feb 2, 2023 | MOST 76 – 67 VAL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | VAL | MOST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-18 | 23-11 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 13-5 |
| Home | 8-8 | 12-4 |
| Away | 3-8 | 8-5 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.6 | 76.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.0 | 69.3 |
| Massey | -0.8 (#187) | 6.3 (#87) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.59 (#226) | 0.36 (#146) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.48 (#208) | 0.86 (#115) |
| RPI | 0.469 (#221) | 0.511 (#151) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | VAL | MOST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.1% | 48.1% |
| 3PT% | 33.9% | 37.9% |
| REB / G | 30.9 | 34.2 |
| OREB / G | 6.1 | 8.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.07 | 1.15 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.1% | 55.7% |
| TOV% | 17.0% | 16.2% |
| ORB% | 19.2% | 26.7% |
| FT Rate | 19.5% | 19.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.9% | 49.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.0% | 17.4% |
| DRB% | 72.6% | 74.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.3% | 21.2% |
Game Analysis
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